The Big Picture

Periodic economic updates and commentary – a global macro perspective

The Paved and Unpaved Road

May 4th, 2018|by Michael Ashley Schulman, Perspectives, The Big Picture|

Summary

  • Price volatility in stocks and bonds is normal and does not necessarily mean that market direction has changed
  • Interest rate increases by central banks and the selling of bonds they’ve acquired (i.e., the reversal of their policy over the […]

Economic Participation

February 13th, 2018|by Michael Ashley Schulman, The Big Picture|

The breadth of participation in this economic expansion has been deep and broad, expect it to continue. The US recovery continues, with the pick-up in corporate earnings auguring well for a re-acceleration in wages and higher core inflation. In the euro area, the expansion […]

Financial Strength versus Price Strength

November 2nd, 2017|by Michael Ashley Schulman, The Big Picture|

Marc ChagallThe rising trend in asset prices known as global asset reflation is not over; improving economic conditions continue to provide a global tailwind to assets. The largest central banks in the world have spent the last nine years and over $12 trillion […]

Global Economy Remains Upbeat, and That Creates Unease

May 11th, 2017|by Michael Ashley Schulman, Perspectives, The Big Picture|

Taste is not everything ;)

The world economy remains reasonably upbeat, and that creates unease.

  • U.S. companies are up and the Fed on track for rate rises
  • Puerto Rico is belly up, but France (and the European Union) are holding together
  • 100 days […]

Stock Prices Have An Alibi

August 12th, 2016|by Michael Ashley Schulman, Perspectives, The Big Picture|

Unicorn AlibiSummary:

  • High and low markets provide similar anxieties
  • European banks remain a source of Bear Stearns type risk
  • LIBOR rates are rising even as central banks keep their own rates low
  • Nonetheless, earnings determine asset […]