Periodic economic updates and commentary – a global macro perspective
The Paved and Unpaved Road
Summary
- Price volatility in stocks and bonds is normal and does not necessarily mean that market direction has changed
- Interest rate increases by central banks and the selling of bonds they’ve acquired (i.e., the reversal of their policy over the […]
Economic Participation
The breadth of participation in this economic expansion has been deep and broad, expect it to continue. The US recovery continues, with the pick-up in corporate earnings auguring well for a re-acceleration in wages and higher core inflation. In the euro area, the expansion […]
Financial Strength versus Price Strength
The rising trend in asset prices known as global asset reflation is not over; improving economic conditions continue to provide a global tailwind to assets. The largest central banks in the world have spent the last nine years and over $12 trillion […]
Global Economy Remains Upbeat, and That Creates Unease
The world economy remains reasonably upbeat, and that creates unease.
- U.S. companies are up and the Fed on track for rate rises
- Puerto Rico is belly up, but France (and the European Union) are holding together
- 100 days […]
Stock Prices Have An Alibi
Summary:
- High and low markets provide similar anxieties
- European banks remain a source of Bear Stearns type risk
- LIBOR rates are rising even as central banks keep their own rates low
- Nonetheless, earnings determine asset […]