The Big Picture

Periodic economic updates and commentary – a global macro perspective

Look forward to a new mediocre for the world economy

December 30th, 2014|by Michael Ashley Schulman, Perspectives, The Big Picture|

Look forward to a new mediocre for the world economy. Five years after the great recession, growth remains sluggish – conforming to the pattern of previous financial crises – but some countries suffer more than others. The U.S. has broken out of this malaise to the benefit of equities, but growth is lackluster because of […]

U.S. deleveraging is over

September 30th, 2014|by Michael Ashley Schulman, Perspectives, The Big Picture|

U.S. deleveraging is over – Since 2008, three clear overlapping waves of deleveraging have dampened U.S. growth. These started in banking before spreading to the wider private sector and then to government. Private-sector deleveraging was largely complete by 2012, with the household debt-to-GDP ratio returning to pre-boom levels and debt servicing costs falling to historic […]

There has been a plethora of bad news

June 30th, 2014|by Michael Ashley Schulman, Perspectives, The Big Picture|

There has been a plethora of bad news over the last couple months – ISIS (the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria) has struck the world stage (literally), Hamas has lobbed over 2,000 fresh rocket attacks into Israel and Israeli Defense Forces have moved into Gaza, the globe was distracted by The World Cup, a […]

The world economy will be a tad stronger in the second quarter

March 30th, 2014|by Michael Ashley Schulman, Perspectives, The Big Picture|

The world economy will be a tad stronger in the second quarter. Nevertheless, the slack in the G7 economies remains large, and growth will stay below potential. If China continues to deteriorate, it could snub the recent improvement in global output. This means that inflation risks are muted, creating ample room for central bank policies […]

Stock market corrections tend to be triggered by widespread fears

December 30th, 2013|by Michael Ashley Schulman, Perspectives, The Big Picture|

Stock market corrections tend to be triggered by widespread fears of an imminent recession. It’s hard to see a significant correction ahead if the big worry is that better-than-expected economic indicators might cause the FOMC to taper QE by $10 billion to $15 billion per month. Just because there are too many bulls and the […]