China

Financial Markets Pulled in a Tug of War

February 4th, 2016|by Michael Ashley Schulman, Perspectives, The Big Picture|

Tug of war rectangle

Financial markets in 2015 were pulled between the Fed’s determination to raise rates as the U.S. job market strengthened and pressure for lower rates in the rest of the world as China’s economic growth slowed and commodity […]

The U.S. has enjoyed a good six year run in asset prices

October 30th, 2015|by Michael Ashley Schulman, Perspectives, The Big Picture|

The U.S. has enjoyed a good six year run in asset prices; simultaneously, the global economy has had anemic economic growth that has perpetually caused concern: this is not the time to increase risk. Some have likened the last several years to a Goldilocks economy, not too hot and not too cold; if so, it […]

Investment Themes

April 6th, 2015|by Michael Ashley Schulman, White Papers|

By Michael Ashley Schulman, CFA,

Managing Director, Senior Portfolio Manager at Hollencrest Capital Management,

Note: A variant of this paper was first published in Chapman University, Argyros School of Business and Economics, The Investment Review, Volume 2, May 2015; click here to download a PDF.

A lot happens and changes […]

U.S. deleveraging is over

September 30th, 2014|by Michael Ashley Schulman, Perspectives, The Big Picture|

U.S. deleveraging is over – Since 2008, three clear overlapping waves of deleveraging have dampened U.S. growth. These started in banking before spreading to the wider private sector and then to government. Private-sector deleveraging was largely complete by 2012, with the household debt-to-GDP ratio returning to pre-boom levels and debt servicing costs falling to historic […]

Stock markets are emotional discounting mechanism

November 30th, 2011|by Michael Ashley Schulman, Perspectives, The Big Picture|

Stock markets are emotional discounting mechanisms, particularly during times of crisis. Nevertheless, underlying economic conditions move much more slowly than emotions. This is why investors need to keep a sense of perspective at times when stock prices are falling. If the U.S. avoids a double dip recession and China glides into an economic soft landing, […]