The U.S. has enjoyed a good six year run in asset prices; simultaneously, the global economy has had anemic economic growth that has perpetually caused concern: this is not the time to increase risk. Some have likened the last several years to a Goldilocks economy, not too hot and not too cold; if so, it […]
Managing Director, Senior Portfolio Manager at Hollencrest Capital Management,
Note: A variant of this paper was first published in Chapman University, Argyros School of Business and Economics, The Investment Review, Volume 2, May 2015; click here to download a PDF.
A lot happens and changes […]
U.S. deleveraging is over – Since 2008, three clear overlapping waves of deleveraging have dampened U.S. growth. These started in banking before spreading to the wider private sector and then to government. Private-sector deleveraging was largely complete by 2012, with the household debt-to-GDP ratio returning to pre-boom levels and debt servicing costs falling to historic […]
Stock markets are emotional discounting mechanisms, particularly during times of crisis. Nevertheless, underlying economic conditions move much more slowly than emotions. This is why investors need to keep a sense of perspective at times when stock prices are falling. If the U.S. avoids a double dip recession and China glides into an economic soft landing, […]