Inflation

The Paved and Unpaved Road

May 4th, 2018|by Michael Ashley Schulman, Perspectives, The Big Picture|

Summary

  • Price volatility in stocks and bonds is normal and does not necessarily mean that market direction has changed
  • Interest rate increases by central banks and the selling of bonds they’ve acquired (i.e., the reversal of their policy over the […]

Stock Prices Have An Alibi

August 12th, 2016|by Michael Ashley Schulman, Perspectives, The Big Picture|

Unicorn AlibiSummary:

  • High and low markets provide similar anxieties
  • European banks remain a source of Bear Stearns type risk
  • LIBOR rates are rising even as central banks keep their own rates low
  • Nonetheless, earnings determine asset […]

U.S. deleveraging is over

September 30th, 2014|by Michael Ashley Schulman, Perspectives, The Big Picture|

U.S. deleveraging is over – Since 2008, three clear overlapping waves of deleveraging have dampened U.S. growth. These started in banking before spreading to the wider private sector and then to government. Private-sector deleveraging was largely complete by 2012, with the household debt-to-GDP ratio returning to pre-boom levels and debt servicing costs falling to historic […]

Inflation or deflation?

May 31st, 2011|by Michael Ashley Schulman, Perspectives, The Big Picture|

Inflation or deflation? The premise for inflation rests on the policy mix of large budget deficits and highly stimulative monetary policies. The Federal Reserve will do whatever it takes if U.S. growth slows to the point where unemployment rates start rising again. Democracies are prone to inflation because of the pressure to buy votes and […]

Additional U.S. monetary stimulus

September 30th, 2010|by Michael Ashley Schulman, Perspectives, The Big Picture|

Additional U.S. monetary stimulus beginning with the November 2–3 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is a foregone conclusion. Policymakers have openly discussed ways to counter the downtrend in inflation expectations and revive economic growth, including an inflation target, a price level target or a nominal income target. These “open mouth operations” have been rewarded […]