U.S.

Financial markets and economies bounced in and out of a deep pothole in the first quarter of 2016

May 16th, 2016|by Michael Ashley Schulman, Perspectives, The Big Picture|

Golden Gate 20pct

Financial markets and economies bounced in and out of a deep pothole in the first quarter of 2016 and the stomach churning reverberations continue to be felt in some investor stomachs.  The underlying strength of the US economy, led by consumer spending, is […]

The domestic economy is much closer to normal

June 30th, 2015|by Michael Ashley Schulman, Perspectives, The Big Picture|

The domestic economy is much closer to normal that it has been in the last five years. With expectations that the U.S. economy will grow 3% in the second half, Greece’s immediate uncertainty behind us, Cuban and Iranian détentes winding their way through the political process, and little damage done by Chinese stock gyrations, there […]

Look forward to a new mediocre for the world economy

December 30th, 2014|by Michael Ashley Schulman, Perspectives, The Big Picture|

Look forward to a new mediocre for the world economy. Five years after the great recession, growth remains sluggish – conforming to the pattern of previous financial crises – but some countries suffer more than others. The U.S. has broken out of this malaise to the benefit of equities, but growth is lackluster because of […]

U.S. deleveraging is over

September 30th, 2014|by Michael Ashley Schulman, Perspectives, The Big Picture|

U.S. deleveraging is over – Since 2008, three clear overlapping waves of deleveraging have dampened U.S. growth. These started in banking before spreading to the wider private sector and then to government. Private-sector deleveraging was largely complete by 2012, with the household debt-to-GDP ratio returning to pre-boom levels and debt servicing costs falling to historic […]

The list of concerns unnerving investors seems to be expanding quickly

January 31st, 2010|by Michael Ashley Schulman, Perspectives, The Big Picture|

The list of concerns unnerving investors seems to be expanding quickly. The degree to which this “recovery” is addicted to emergency policy stimulus has been the most important source of uncertainty since the beginning of this year. Now add to this the danger posed by a tightening in Chinese monetary policy, the growing sovereign debt […]